Entwurf eines Mastergleichungsmodells zur Beschreibung der Dynamiken bei den österreichischen Nationalratswahlen 1970 bis 1990

Abstract: The long term dynamics of voting behaviour have rarely been transposed into nonlinear models. This paper proposes a description of the electoral dynamics in Austria from 1970 to 1990 by the master equation formalism. In the first part the flows of vote of that time are reported and analysed with "traditional" tools, in the second part a formal description of the model is given. Transition probabilities from one party to the other are regulated by two factors: the symmetrical "distances" between parties which are based on class differentiation in the electorate and the asymmetrical "attractiveness" which results from the popularity of their leaders and from the fact if they were incumbent or in opposition before the elections.;