SLOPOL. A macroeconometric model of the Slovenian economy

Slovenia entered the European Union in 2004 and was the first of the new EU Member States to enter the euro-area in 2007. As Slovenia was part of the former Yugoslavia until 1991, the economic history of the country to some extent started after that date. This causes difficulties for research into empirical regularities to be used in forecasting and policy analysis. This paper describes a macroeconometric model for Slovenia (“SLOPOL”) developed despite these issues. The model uses the most recent quarterly data and is based on current econometric methodology, including stationarity and cointegration analysis. The model has already been used successfully for simulations of alternative monetary and fiscal-policy measures, as well as for forecasting. A forecast of economic development in Slovenia for 2011 and 2012, which was generated with the SLOPOL model, is also presented in this paper.