A Macroeconometric Model for Serbia

This paper describes and evaluates a quarterly macroeconometric model for Serbia. Due to the economic restructuring and transformation in Serbia which followed the major geographical, economic, and institutional disruptions in the former Yugoslavia in the first half of the 1990s, reliable macroeconomic time series for Serbia are available only from about 1997 onwards. Hence, quarterly data have been used to estimate the behavioural equations of the model. However, for some aggregates, only annual data are available. In these cases, quarterly data have been derived by recurring to related series. Notwithstanding these data limitations, the macroeconometric model is able to replicate the endogenous variables reasonably well in an ex post simulation.