Budget consolidation in a small open economy: a case study for Slovenia

Blueschke, Dmitri; Weyerstrass, Klaus ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5659-8991; Neck, Reinhard; Majcen, Boris; Srakar, Andrej and Verbic, Miroslav ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5506-0973 (2019) Budget consolidation in a small open economy: a case study for Slovenia. Post-Communist Economies, 31 (3), pp. 325-348.

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Abstract or Table of Contents

In this article, we use the macroeconometric model SLOPOL10 to calculate simulations of the development of the Slovenian economy until 2030. Starting from the present favourable prospects of the European economies, the forecast is very optimistic but it can nevertheless be improved by optimal fiscal policies as calculated using the OPTCON2 algorithm. If a negative shock to world trade of a size comparable to the Great Recession occurs, it will entail a decline in GDP and a slow recovery. In this case, optimal fiscal policies should not act in an expansionary way as the effectiveness of fiscal policy with respect to output and employment is rather limited in a small open economy like Slovenia. Instead, the goal of budget consolidation will call for a more restrictive fiscal policy, at least if the shock is temporary.

Item Type: Article in Academic Journal
Keywords: Macroeconomics; fiscal policy; Slovenia; crisis; public debt
Funders: Austrian Science Foundation FWF (project no. I 2764-G27), Slovenian Research Agency ARRS (contract no. 630-31/2016-1)
Classification Codes (e.g. JEL): E17; E37; H63
Research Units: Macroeconomics and Economic Policy
Status: Published
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2019 08:33
Last Modified: 16 Sep 2019 08:49
Identification Number or DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2018.1537735
ISSN: 1463-1377
URI: https://irihs.ihs.ac.at/id/eprint/4880

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