The CEEC10's Real Convergence Prospects

Abstract: The Central and Eastern European countries' prospects of becoming EU members depend heavily on, among other things, their per capita GDP levels. The growth prospects of these economies cannot be directly assessed, as the economic growth process in the transition countries is shown to not yet be described adequately by neoclassical growth theory. Thus, an indirect approach is taken, which maps the Western European growth experience on 10 Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC10).This indirect approach is used to project growth rates of the CEEC10 and the time required to close the income gaps to the European Union (EU). The sensitivity of the results is analyzed by presenting a wide variety of economically meaningful scenarios. Finally, possible beneficial effects of EU membership or pre-accession aids are studied. The effects on the reduction of the times to converge are computed.;