Demand‑side or supply‑side stabilisation policies in a small euro area economy: a case study for Slovenia

Neck, Reinhard; Weyerstrass, KlausORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5659-8991; Blueschke, Dmitri and Verbic, Miroslav (2021) Demand‑side or supply‑side stabilisation policies in a small euro area economy: a case study for Slovenia. Empirica, 48 (3), pp. 593-610. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-021-09503-y

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Abstract

In this paper we analyse the effectiveness of demand- and supply-side fiscal policies in the small open economy of Slovenia. Simulating the SLOPOL10 model, an econometric model of the Slovenian economy, we analyse the effectiveness of various categories of public spending and taxes during the period 2020 to 2030, assuming that no crisis occurs. Our simulations show that those public spending measures that entail both demand- and supply-side effects are more effective at stimulating real GDP and increasing employment than pure demand-side measures. This is due to the fact that supply-side measures also increase potential and not only actual GDP. Measures which foster research and development and those which improve the education level of the labour force are particularly effective in this respect. Employment can also be stimulated effectively by cutting the income tax rate and the social security contribution rate, i.e. by reducing the tax wedge on labour income, which positively affects Slovenia’s international competitiveness. Successful stabilisation policies should thus contain a supply-side component in addition to a demand-side component. We also provide a first simulation of potential effects of the Covid-19 crisis on the Slovenian economy, which is modelled as a combined demand and supply shock.

Item Type: Article in Academic Journal
Keywords: Macroeconomics, Stabilisation policy, Fiscal policy, Tax policy, Public expenditure, Demand management, Supply-side policies, Slovenia, Public debt
Classification Codes (e.g. JEL): E62, E17, E37
Research Units: Current Research Groups > Macroeconomics and Business Cycles
Date Deposited: 23 Mar 2021 08:51
Last Modified: 14 Jul 2021 07:50
DOI: 10.1007/s10663-021-09503-y
ISSN: 1573-6911, 0340-8744
URI: https://irihs.ihs.ac.at/id/eprint/5758

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