Forecasting Aggregate Demand in West African Economies: The Influence of Immigrant Remittance Flows and of Asymmetric Error Correction

Jumah, Adusei and Kunst, Robert M. (February 2005) Forecasting Aggregate Demand in West African Economies: The Influence of Immigrant Remittance Flows and of Asymmetric Error Correction. IHS Economics Series 168

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Abstract or Table of Contents

Abstract: In a panel of West African countries, we investigate whether data on immigrant remittance flows can be used to improve on predictive accuracy of aggregate demand in a systematic way. The results of the prediction experiments are compared to traditional significance tests of asymmetric error correction and of the exogenous remittance variable. We find that there is a considerable discrepancy between statistical hypothesis testing and the results from the forecast comparison. Inparticular, while remittances yield significant coefficients for at least some of the accounts aggregates, they do not contribute to improved forecasting accuracy.;

Item Type: IHS Series
Keywords: 'Remittances' 'Time series' 'Prediction' 'Cointegration net exports'
Classification Codes (e.g. JEL): C31, C53, O55
Status: Published
Date Deposited: 26 Sep 2014 10:38
Last Modified: 25 Jul 2017 17:57
URI: http://irihs.ihs.ac.at/id/eprint/1618

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